Reliability Assessment of the Brazilian Power System Using Enumeration and Monte Carlo

Abstract

Two methods have been largely studied and used in power systems reliability assessment: contingency enumeration and nonsequential Monte Carlo simulation. Both have their advantages and drawbacks. Contingency enumeration is conceptually simple and usually requires low computational effort. Conversely, Monte Carlo simulation is computationally harder, but much more versatile to model random aspects. This paper depicts some important practical aspects regarding the application of both methods, emphasizing how they can be used in a complementary way. The Brazilian interconnected electrical system is used to illustrate the risk assessment of an actual large scale power system, utilizing both techniques.