The Influence of Presumed Influence

TLDR

Mass communication research has focused on direct media effects, but recent theory highlights powerful indirect effects, such as the indirect effects model derived from the third‑person effect hypothesis, where people react to perceived impacts on others. The study introduces the “influence of presumed influence” model. The model was evaluated using data from a Nepalese maternal health campaign featuring a serial radio drama aimed at clinic health workers. Although the program did not directly affect women, it significantly influenced their attitudes and reported behaviors indirectly through their perceptions of its impact on clinic health workers.

Abstract

Although direct influences of media have been the primary focus of mass communication research, recent theoretical developments have suggested powerful and important indirect effects as well. Derived from the third-person effect hypothesis and related research, but describing a broader range of phenomena, the indirect effects model proposes that people (a) perceive some effect of a message on others and then (b) react to that perception. We call this model the influence of presumed influence. The general model was tested with evaluation data from a maternal health campaign in Nepal. A key aspect of the campaign was a serial radio drama directed at clinic health workers. Results showed, however, that many women in the general population also listened to the serial. The program had no direct positive influence on this population, but we found a significant indirect influence on their attitudes and reported behaviors when mediated by their perceptions of impact on the target population of clinic health workers.