Publication | Open Access
Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions
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Citations
42
References
2009
Year
EngineeringGreenhouse Gas EmissionClimate PolicyClimate CrisisEarth ScienceCarbon Dioxide ConcentrationClimate ImpactClimate Change MitigationIrreversible Climate ChangeClimate ChangeCarbon SequestrationGlobal WarmingClimate EconomicsClimate Change EffectClimatologyConservative Lower LimitBusinessEnvironmental ChangeGlobal Warming PotentialEmissions
There are multiple Findings sentences. Let's read them: - From Purpose, Findings: same as Purpose sentence but also Findings: "This paper shows that the climate change that takes place due to increases in carbon dioxide concentration is largely irreversible for 1,000 years after emissions stop." That is a finding. - From Mechanism, Findings: same as Mechanism sentence but also Findings: "Following cessation of emissions, removal of atmospheric carbon dioxide decreases radiative forcing, but is largely compensated by slower loss of heat to the ocean, so that atmospheric temperatures do not drop significantly for at least 1,000 years." That is a finding. We can write: "The study finds that CO₂-driven climate change is largely irreversible for about 1,000 years, with projected irreversible dry‑season rainfall reductions comparable to the Dust Bowl and sea‑level rise of at least 0.4–1.0 m if 21st‑century concentrations exceed 600 ppmv (0.6–1.9 m for >1,000 ppmv), with glacier and ice‑sheet contributions potentially adding several meters over the next millennium." Check length: It's one sentence.
The severity of damaging human-induced climate change depends not only on the magnitude of the change but also on the potential for irreversibility. This paper shows that the climate change that takes place due to increases in carbon dioxide concentration is largely irreversible for 1,000 years after emissions stop. Following cessation of emissions, removal of atmospheric carbon dioxide decreases radiative forcing, but is largely compensated by slower loss of heat to the ocean, so that atmospheric temperatures do not drop significantly for at least 1,000 years. Among illustrative irreversible impacts that should be expected if atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations increase from current levels near 385 parts per million by volume (ppmv) to a peak of 450-600 ppmv over the coming century are irreversible dry-season rainfall reductions in several regions comparable to those of the "dust bowl" era and inexorable sea level rise. Thermal expansion of the warming ocean provides a conservative lower limit to irreversible global average sea level rise of at least 0.4-1.0 m if 21st century CO(2) concentrations exceed 600 ppmv and 0.6-1.9 m for peak CO(2) concentrations exceeding approximately 1,000 ppmv. Additional contributions from glaciers and ice sheet contributions to future sea level rise are uncertain but may equal or exceed several meters over the next millennium or longer.
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