When will computer hardware match the human brain

Abstract

This paper describes how the performance of AI machines tends to improve at the same pace that AI researchers get access to faster hardware. The processing power and memory capacity necessary to match general intellectual performance of the human brain are estimated. Based on extrapolation of past trends and on examination of technologies under development, it is predicted that the required hardware will be available in cheap machines in the 2020s. Brains, Eyes and Machines Computers have far to go to match human strengths, and our estimates will depend on analogy and extrapolation. Fortunately, these are grounded in the first bit of the journey, now behind us. Thirty years of computer vision reveals that 1 MIPS can extract simple features from real−time imagery−−tracking a white line or a white spot on a mottled background. 10 MIPS can follow complex gray−scale patches−−as smart bombs, cruise missiles and early self−driving vans attest. 100 MIPS can follow moderately unpredictable features like roads−−as recent long NAVLAB trips demonstrate. 1,000 MIPS will be adequate for coarse−grained three−dimensional spatial awareness−−illustrated by several mid−resolution stereoscopic vision programs, including my own. 10,000 MIPS can find three−dimensional objects in clutter−−suggested by several "bin−picking " and high−resolution stereo−vision demonstrations, which accomplish the task in an