The Paradox of Probation: Community Supervision in the Age of Mass Incarceration

TLDR

U.S. prison populations have begun to decline after decades of growth, prompting calls to expand probation, yet traditional literature warns that such expansions may widen penal control and increase incarceration. The article reevaluates probation’s role in mass incarceration, offering a comprehensive assessment and a new theoretical model of the probation‑prison link that moves beyond diversion versus net widening. The study uses regression models and case studies to analyze how states can modify the probation‑prison relationship by altering sentencing outcomes and probation supervision practices, within a new theoretical framework.

Abstract

After four decades of steady growth, U.S. states' prison populations finally appear to be declining, driven by a range of sentencing and policy reforms. One of the most popular reform suggestions is to expand probation supervision in lieu of incarceration. However, the classic socio-legal literature suggests that expansions of probation instead widen the net of penal control and lead to higher incarceration rates. This article reconsiders probation in the era of mass incarceration, providing the first comprehensive evaluation of the role of probation in the build-up of the criminal justice system. The results suggest that probation was not the primary driver of mass incarceration in most states, nor is it likely to be a simple panacea to mass incarceration. Rather, probation serves both capacities, acting as an alternative and as a net-widener, to varying degrees across time and place. Moving beyond the question of diversion versus net widening, this article presents a new theoretical model of the probation-prison link that examines the mechanisms underlying this dynamic. Using regression models and case studies, I analyze how states can modify the relationship between probation and imprisonment by changing sentencing outcomes and the practices of probation supervision. When combined with other key efforts, reforms to probation can be part of the movement to reverse mass incarceration.