Effects of Exchange Rate Changes on U.S. Agriculture: A Dynamic Analysis

Abstract

Abstract An econometric model of the wheat, corn, and soybean markets is used to examine the dynamic effects of exchange rate fluctuation on U.S. commodity markets. Exports and agricultural prices are found to be sensitive to movements in the exchange rate, while domestic factors, such as disappearance and inventories, are less sensitive but still responsive. Dramatic short‐run adjustments in prices and exports are followed by less dramatic but significant longer‐run adjustments. Thus, the hypothesis of elastic response to the exchange rate seems particularly relevant for the short run.