ESTIMATING FLAT TAX INCIDENCE AND YIELD: A SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

Abstract

This research estimates the distributional effects of replacing existing federal income taxes with a flat tax as proposed by Representative Richard Armey and Senator Richard Shelby. Different assumptions about tax incidence and how the flat tax would be implemented yield somewhat different estimates of the distribution of gains and losses. Nevertheless, our main conclusions appear to be quite robust. Switching to the proposed flat tax would increase the tax burdens of a majority of taxpayers and would significantly redistribute tax burdens, mainly from the top decile to other taxpayers. This pattern of redistribution persists, although the top decile's gains are lessened, even if the flat tax is modified to make it more progressive.