A design methodology for scenario-analysis in urban freight modeling

Abstract

Urban goods movement modelling is a popular subject in urban lo
\ngistics research. However, most
\nmodels remain under
\n-
\nused because practitioners have difficulties to apply them to simulate urban policies
\nand their impacts on transport flows, mainly when the assessed situations are different from the initial
\nusage of the
\nmode. This paper aims to answer to that issue by proposing a methodology of scenario
\nconstruction and assessment using current models and tools. The methodological contribution of the
\npaper arises on defining the main elements of a policy
\n-
\nbased scenario an
\nd on developing a procedure to
\nbuild the inputs a model needs to simulate the impacts of policy
\n-
\noriented strategies on urban goods
\ntransport flows. First, the main elements policy makers can take into account when defining middle term
\nstrategies are identi
\nfied. Then, a scenario construction procedure is proposed, able to build reference
\nscenarios and trend scenarios. An example for the urban area of Lyon is proposed. According to the
\nreference scenario, it becomes possible to compare and understand urban go
\nods movement changes, by
\nimplementing the model introducing variations, such as activity relocation or urban distribution centre
\nwhose impacts concern not only the freight flows themselves but also the whole urban logistics
\norganisation. In this way, the p
\nroposed methodology is adapted to policy
\n-
\noriented strategic and tactical
\nplanning, mainly for public stakeholders.