Market based transmission expansion planning: fuzzy risk assessment

Abstract

In this paper a new market based approach for transmission expansion planning in deregulated power systems is presented. A scenario technique is used in order to model nonrandom uncertainties. Drawbacks of criteria of scenario technique are pointed out and new criteria are presented for risk assessment. A probabilistic tool is presented for assessing electric markets with random uncertainties. To measure how much a transmission plan improves competition a market based criterion is introduced. The final plan is selected using fuzzy risk assessment. The approach is applied to IEEE 30 bus network. The results are compared with conventional risk assessment to demonstrate that fuzzy risk assessment overcomes the shortcomings of conventional risk assessment method.