Estimating the Value of an Early-Warning System

Abstract

An early-warning system generates economic value to the extent that it improves decision making. The value of the information hinges on the degree to which a timely response, aided by warnings, facilitates successful damage mitigation. USDA’s Coordinated Framework for Soybean Rust includes a network of sentinel soybean plots and wild kudzu stands monitored by extension agents for the presence of soybean rust, a potentially recurring threat to the U.S. soybean crop since 2005. The linchpin in this early-warning system is a website that provides near real-time, county-level information on the location of the disease. We consider factors that may influence information value.