Simulation of Interannual Variability of Tropical Storm Frequency in an Ensemble of GCM Integrations

Abstract

The present study examines the simulation of the number of tropical storms produced in GCM integrations with a prescribed SST. A 9-member ensemble of 10-yr integrations of a T42 atmospheric model forced by observed SSTs has been produced; each ensemble member differs only in the initial atmospheric conditions. An objective procedure for tracking-model-generated tropical storms is applied to this ensemble during the last 9 yr of the integrations . The seasonal and monthly variations of tropical storm numbers are compared with observations for each ocean basin.