Labour Markets and Monetary Union: A Strategic Analysis

Abstract

This paper shows that the effects of a monetary union depend on several labour market features. In particular, the switch from national monetary policies to a common monetary policy usually affects both inflation and unemployment, even when all structural parameters of the economy and of unions' and policymakers' preferences remain the same. The benchmark case of a monetary union between identical countries suggests that the switch to a monetary union is likely to make labour unions more aggressive, increasing unemployment. Qualifications to this result are provided under alternative institutional scenarios, like cross‐country asymmetries, (pre‐union) ERM membership and wage leadership.