DEFICITS, POLITICS AND MONEY GROWTH

Abstract

We examine the linkage between Federal deficits and money growth by allowing the Fed's response to any given deficit to vary systematically according to how the deficit is generated and the Party affiliation of the current president. In equations for Ml and monetary base growth, the structural deficit is consistently significant and invariant across political changes, while the cyclical component of the deficit (or a direct measure of the business cycle) is significant only during the tenure of Democratic presidents.