PREDICTING THE RECIDIVISM OF SERIOUS YOUTHFUL OFFENDERS USING SURVIVAL MODELS*

Abstract

Increases over the past decade in the number and seriousness of crimes committed by young offenders have resulted in renewed interest in control of the serious, violent, or chronic youthful offender. Recent research has established a number of theoretically relevant variables associated with persistent offending and offending defined recidivism. Few studies, however, have examined the individual characteristics that might predict the timing of youthful recidivism. This paper seeks to fill some gaps in knowledge of the serious youthful offender by estimating a multivariate survival model for a sample of youths paroled from California Youth Authority institutions. The model's results are then used to develop risk‐assessment profiles for the sample. We suggest that these profiles may provide a reasonable approach for establishing treatment protocols or supervision requirements for paroled youths.