Natural-Resource Wealth and the Survival of Autocracy

Abstract

Does natural-resource wealth impede transitions to democracy? This article revisits this question with an event history design that differs from the approach used in other recent statistical tests of rentier state theory. The research confirms that autocracy is typically more durable in countries with substantial resource wealth, and the author finds this effect is robust to other measures proposed to explain the dearth of democracy in the Middle East or the Muslim world. Along the way, the author raises concerns about the use of all-countries and all-years samples to test theories of democratization, arguing that this design can obscure important differences in the forces driving stability and change among different types of political regimes.