Continuous hydrologic modeling with HMS in the Aggtelek Karst region

Abstract

Karst aquifers have complex groundwater flow patterns. In Hungary, Aggtelek is one of the best-studied karst regions. Research started in the early 1960’s to study the surface and subsurface hydrology of the region. Data collected included hydro-meteorological measurements, surface flow experiments and analyses, direct and indirect determination of karst infiltration, and water level measurements in karst wells. Between 1959 and 2000, daily measurements were conducted at the 15 largest karst springs. Creating a robust prediction model for this area has been elusive. This paper discusses the development, parameterization and calibration of the soil moisture accounting (SMA) method in the Hydrologic Modeling System (HMS) for one of the watersheds in this region. Parameters were studied with respect to sensitivity in generating baseline outflows for the watershed. The model was calibrated using a eight-year span of data and five different statistical measures to determine goodness-of-fit. Once calibrated, the model was used to predict baseline flow for other time periods and the results compared to measured data. The model produced reasonable results, but illustrated the need for more refined application of specific parameters.