Westward shift of western North Pacific tropical cyclogenesis

Abstract

Abstract Tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western North Pacific or typhoons account for one third of all TCs in the world and the change of the mean TC genesis location can affect billions of people in Pacific islands and Asian countries. The annual mean TC genesis longitude is generally controlled by the east‐west shift of the tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT). A pronounced westward shift in the TUTT is found in all of the available reanalysis data sets during 1979–2012, suppressing TC genesis in the eastern portion (east of 145°E) of the western North Pacific basin due to the enhanced vertical wind shear associated with the TUTT shift. As a result, the annual mean TC genesis longitude has significantly shifted westward since 1979. The westward shifting trends in the TUTT and TC genesis are associated with the enhanced tropical tropospheric warming, which is consistent with the response of the tropospheric temperature to global warming.