Detection of changes in temperature extremes during the second half of the 20th century

Abstract

Since 1950, the warmest and coldest days and nights of the year have become warmer. Comparing these observations with climate model simulations in an optimal detection analysis shows a significant human influence on patterns of change in extremely warm nights. Human influence on cold nights and days is also detected, although less robustly, but there is no detection of a significant human influence on extremely warm days. In the future, extreme temperatures are expected to intensify considerably, with adverse consequences for human health.