A proposal for construction project risk assessment using fuzzy logic

TLDR

The construction industry suffers frequent risks that lead to poor performance, and existing risk‑management techniques, largely based on 1960s operational research, often fail to meet project managers’ needs. This study proposes a hierarchical risk‑breakdown‑structure model to formally assess qualitative risks in construction projects. Using a common risk language, cause‑effect diagrams, and fuzzy association/composition, the method quantifies risk exposure across time, cost, quality, and safety performance metrics.

Abstract

The construction industry is plagued by risk and often has suffered poor performance as a result. There are a number of risk management techniques available to help alleviate this, but usually these are based on operational research techniques developed in the 1960s, and for the most part have failed to meet the needs of project managers. In this paper, a hierarchical risk breakdown structure representation is used to develop a formal model for qualitative risk assessment. A common language for describing risks is presented which includes terms for quantifying likelihoods and impacts so as to achieve consistent quantification. The relationships between risk factors, risks and their consequences are represented on cause and effect diagrams. These diagrams and the concepts of fuzzy association and fuzzy composition are applied to identify relationships between risk sources and the consequences for project performance measures. A methodology for evaluating the risk exposure, considering the consequences in terms of time, cost, quality, and safety performance measures of a project based on fuzzy estimates of the risk components is presented.