Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks

TLDR

Accurate estimates of climate change impacts on agriculture require integrated climate, crop, and economic models. The study investigates how economic models contribute to uncertainty in climate‑agriculture impact estimates. Across nine economic models, management intensity, area, consumption, and trade responses to climate‑induced crop yield shocks are directionally consistent, but magnitudes vary markedly with model structure—particularly endogenous yield effects, land‑use change, and trade propensity—indicating key areas for future research.

Abstract

Significance Plausible estimates of climate change impacts on agriculture require integrated use of climate, crop, and economic models. We investigate the contribution of economic models to uncertainty in this impact chain. In the nine economic models included, the direction of management intensity, area, consumption, and international trade responses to harmonized crop yield shocks from climate change are similar. However, the magnitudes differ significantly. The differences depend on model structure, in particular the specification of endogenous yield effects, land use change, and propensity to trade. These results highlight where future research on modeling climate change impacts on agriculture should focus.