Policy Punctuations in Danish Local Budgeting

Abstract

The central prediction in Baumgartner and Jones’ (1993) punctuated equilibrium theory is that over time, public policy will be characterized by a certain pattern of stability now and then interrupted by punctuations. This paper extends the study of punctuated equilibrium theory in two ways. First, I examine whether this prediction is met in a non-US-based political system like Danish local government. Second, I conduct a comparative investigation of stability and punctuations in four public policy areas chosen for theoretical purposes. Using a stochastic process approach, my findings are that the annual local budget changes, as expected from the punctuated equilibrium theory, are characterized by a certain pattern of stability and punctuations. Equally interesting, however, is the fact that the analysis also reveals some systematic underlying variation, enhancing our understanding of just where budget punctuations are particularly likely to occur, something former studies on punctuated equilibrium theory have not elucidated.