ROBUST DECISION‐MAKING UNDER SEVERE UNCERTAINTY FOR CONSERVATION MANAGEMENT

TLDR

Conservation biology requires decisions for endangered species under severe uncertainty, and ignoring this uncertainty can lead to poor outcomes, so methods like information‑gap theory assess how much uncertainty a decision can tolerate. The study reanalyzes a Sumatran rhino management decision using information‑gap theory to propagate uncertainties and rank options, illustrating the importance of considering uncertainty. Information‑gap theory propagates uncertainties and evaluates the robustness of management decisions under severe uncertainty. Accounting for uncertainty in utilities and probabilities can alter management choices, underscoring the need for a comprehensive uncertainty assessment to avoid undesirable outcomes.

Abstract

In conservation biology it is necessary to make management decisions for endangered and threatened species under severe uncertainty. Failure to acknowledge and treat uncertainty can lead to poor decisions. To illustrate the importance of considering uncertainty, we reanalyze a decision problem for the Sumatran rhino, Dicerorhinus sumatrensis , using information‐gap theory to propagate uncertainties and to rank management options. Rather than requiring information about the extent of parameter uncertainty at the outset, information‐gap theory addresses the question of how much uncertainty can be tolerated before our decision would change. It assesses the robustness of decisions in the face of severe uncertainty. We show that different management decisions may result when uncertainty in utilities and probabilities are considered in decision‐making problems. We highlight the importance of a full assessment of uncertainty in conservation management decisions to avoid, as much as possible, undesirable outcomes.