Large‐scale redistribution of maximum fisheries catch potential in the global ocean under climate change

TLDR

Climate change impact studies on global food supply have largely ignored marine capture fisheries, despite their significant contribution to animal protein. The study projects changes in global catch potential for 1066 exploited marine species from 2005 to 2055 under climate change scenarios. The authors model catch potential for 1066 marine species over 2005–2055 using climate change scenarios. Climate change is projected to shift global catch potential, boosting high‑latitude regions by 30–70% while reducing tropical catch by up to 40%, with notable declines in southern margins of semi‑enclosed seas and gains at poleward continental shelf tips, especially in the Pacific, leading to increased potential in EEZs such as Norway, Greenland, Alaska, and Russia, but losses in Indonesia, mainland US, Chile, and China, underscoring the need for adaptation policies and informing fisheries management.

Abstract

Abstract Previous projection of climate change impacts on global food supply focuses solely on production from terrestrial biomes, ignoring the large contribution of animal protein from marine capture fisheries. Here, we project changes in global catch potential for 1066 species of exploited marine fish and invertebrates from 2005 to 2055 under climate change scenarios. We show that climate change may lead to large‐scale redistribution of global catch potential, with an average of 30–70% increase in high‐latitude regions and a drop of up to 40% in the tropics. Moreover, maximum catch potential declines considerably in the southward margins of semienclosed seas while it increases in poleward tips of continental shelf margins. Such changes are most apparent in the Pacific Ocean. Among the 20 most important fishing Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) regions in terms of their total landings, EEZ regions with the highest increase in catch potential by 2055 include Norway, Greenland, the United States (Alaska) and Russia (Asia). On the contrary, EEZ regions with the biggest loss in maximum catch potential include Indonesia, the United States (excluding Alaska and Hawaii), Chile and China. Many highly impacted regions, particularly those in the tropics, are socioeconomically vulnerable to these changes. Thus, our results indicate the need to develop adaptation policy that could minimize climate change impacts through fisheries. The study also provides information that may be useful to evaluate fisheries management options under climate change.