Urban Stratification of Places, Routine Activities and Suburban Crime Rates

Abstract

Cohen and Felson's (1979) theory of “routine activities” is evaluated using 1972 and 1980 crime rate data for 676 American suburbs. Cross-sectional and change influences of criminal motivation (percent poor, percent unemployed, percent black, and percent youth), criminal opportunities (employment concentration and percent multiple housing) and guardianship (police employment, police expenditure, and female labor force nonparticipation) on suburban crime rates, 1980 and change in crime rates, 1972–80 are estimated using maximum likelihood (LISREL) techniques. Consistent with the routine activities model, a multiplicative effect of the preconditions for crime on crime rates is also estimated. Motivation, opportunities, and guardianship are found to have direct and/or indirect additive effects on violent and/or property crime rates—supporting the “routine activities” model. A multiplicative effect of the preconditions of crime is found for property crime but not for violent crime rates.