European scenario synthesis to be used for electricity transmission network planning

Abstract

The EU research project IRENE-40 aims at the development of a roadmap for the European and Pan-European transmission networks for the next 40 years (until 2050). In addition to the know-how which technologies can be applied to solve transmission problems in the near and far future, an evaluation of the future generation and load scenarios is necessary. For this purpose five scenarios have been developed: BUSINESS AS USUAL (BAU) - RENEWABLE (RES) - DESERTEC (DES) - CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE (CCS) - HIGH EFFICIENCY (EFFICIENCY). In these demand-and generation scenarios the share of renewable, the penetration of Carbon Capture and Storage and the level of electricity demand vary widely. The reasoning behind the choices in the main parameters for these scenarios are discussed. The wide range in some of the major scenario assumptions cause substantially different circumstances for future grid expansion, Especially the share of solar PV and wind in future generation is a crucial parameter influencing the demand for long-distance transmission at a European scale. A comparison is made with some other recent scenario and roadmap studies with a 2050 horizon.