Ecosystem Service Supply and Vulnerability to Global Change in Europe

TLDR

Global change will alter the supply of ecosystem services that are vital for human well‑being. To investigate ecosystem service supply during the 21st century, we used a range of ecosystem models and scenarios of climate and land‑use change to conduct a Europe‑wide assessment. Large changes in climate and land use typically resulted in large changes in ecosystem service supply, with some trends positive—such as increased forest area and productivity—or offering opportunities like surplus land for agricultural extensification and bioenergy, while many changes increase vulnerability through declining soil fertility, water availability, and higher forest fire risk, especially in Mediterranean and mountain regions.

Abstract

Global change will alter the supply of ecosystem services that are vital for human well-being. To investigate ecosystem service supply during the 21st century, we used a range of ecosystem models and scenarios of climate and land-use change to conduct a Europe-wide assessment. Large changes in climate and land use typically resulted in large changes in ecosystem service supply. Some of these trends may be positive (for example, increases in forest area and productivity) or offer opportunities (for example, "surplus land" for agricultural extensification and bioenergy production). However, many changes increase vulnerability as a result of a decreasing supply of ecosystem services (for example, declining soil fertility, declining water availability, increasing risk of forest fires), especially in the Mediterranean and mountain regions.