Lifting the Alaskan Oil Export Ban: An Intervention Analysis

Abstract

In this paper we examine the price effects on crude oils of removing the U.S. export ban on Alaskan North Slope crude oil in 1996. We estimate the long-run impact of removing the export ban through the use of a time series intervention analysis. The results indicate that Alaskan crude oil prices increased between $0.98 and $1.30 on the West Coast spot market relative to prices of comparable crude oils as a result of removing the export ban. However, we find no evidence that West Coast prices for refined oil products—regular unleaded gasoline, diesel fuel, and jet fuel—increased as a result of lifting the ban.