Simulating SARS: Small-world epidemiological modeling and public health policy assessments

Abstract

The authors propose a novel small-world model that makes use of cellular automata with the mirror identities of daily-contact social networks to simulate epidemiological scenarios. We established the mirror identity concept (a miniature representation of frequently visited places) to acknowledge human long-distance movement and geographic mobility. Specifically, the model was used to a) simulate the dynamics of SARS transmission in Singapore, Taipei, and Toronto and b) discuss the effectiveness of the respective public health policies of those cities. We believe the model can be applied to influenza, enteroviruses, AIDS, and other contagious diseases according to the various needs of health authorities.