GA-Based Support Vector Machine Model for the Prediction of Monthly Reservoir Storage

Abstract

Reservoir storage prediction is essential to the operation and management of reservoirs. In this paper, a genetic algorithm (GA)-based support vector machine (SVM) model was developed for the prediction of monthly reservoir storage of Miyun Reservoir (the only surface drinking water source for Beijing city) over the period of 1995 to 2011. At the same time, two other SVM-based models that combine grid search and particle swarm optimization methods respectively for the parameter optimization, were used for comparison. The results showed that the developed GA-SVM model had the best performance in calibration and prediction. Owing to its high accuracy, the GA-SVM model would be popularized to the prediction of reservoir storage in other regions.