Influence of oceanographic variability on recruitment of yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) in the western and central Pacific Ocean

Abstract

Recruitment estimates for yellowfin tuna ( Thunnus albacares ) in the western and central Pacific Ocean (WCPO), derived from a stock assessment model, are highly variable seasonally, interannually, and over decadal periods. A generalized linear model (GLM) was developed that predicts the variation in yellowfin tuna recruitment in response to a range of oceanographic variables. The GLM model accounted for 54% of the variation in quarterly recruitment for the period 1980–2003, with the inclusion of seven different oceanographic variables derived from a zone within the northwestern equatorial region of the WCPO. The robustness of the recruitment model was investigated by cross-validation. The GLM was complemented by a cluster analysis approach that identified five principal oceanographic states within the northwestern zone selected by the GLM. Incorporation of the recent GLM recruitment indices in the yellowfin tuna stock assessment model is likely to improve the precision of estimates of current and projected (next 1–2 years) biomass and exploitation rates. In a broader context, the recruitment model provides a tool to investigate how yellowfin tuna recruitment might vary in response to short- and long-term variation in the oceanographic conditions of the WCPO.