How closely do changes in surface and column water vapor follow Clausius–Clapeyron scaling in climate change simulations?

Abstract

The factors governing the rate of change in the amount of atmospheric water vapor are analyzed in simulations of climate change. The global-mean amount of water vapor is estimated to increase at a differential rate of 7.3% K − 1 with respect to global-mean surface air temperature in the multi-model mean. Larger rates of change result if the fractional change is evaluated over a finite change in temperature (e.g., 8.2% K − 1 for a 3 K warming), and rates of change of zonal-mean column water vapor range from 6 to 12% K − 1 depending on latitude.