Beyond greed and grievance: feasibility and civil war

TLDR

Civil war is the most common form of large-scale violence, causing extensive destruction to life, society, and the economy, making its prevention a top international priority. The study empirically investigates factors that make countries susceptible to civil war. The authors analyze a global panel dataset covering 1960–2004 to assess various determinants of civil war. The results show little support for motivation as a predictor of civil war risk, but support the feasibility hypothesis that civil wars arise when rebellion is financially and militarily viable. JEL classifications: O10, D74.

Abstract

Civil war is the most prevalent form of large-scale violence and is massively destructive to life, society, and the economy. The prevention of civil war is therefore a key priority for international attention. We present an empirical analysis of what makes countries prone to civil war. Using a global panel data set we examine different determinants of civil war for the period 1960–2004. We find little evidence that motivation can account for civil war risk but we suggest that there is evidence to support our feasibility hypothesis: that where a rebellion is financially and militarily feasible it will occur. JEL classifications: O10, D74.