Two funerals and a wedding? The ups and downs of regionalism in East Asia and Asia-Pacific after the Asian crisis

TLDR

ASEAN and APEC are viewed as crisis‑stricken and stagnant, while a nascent body, ASEAN Plus Three, is emerging with proposals for tighter East‑Asian integration. The article examines why ASEAN and APEC are declining and why APT is rising, based on determinants of regional integration success and failure. The Asian financial crisis exposed ASEAN and APEC’s structural weaknesses and lack of a dominant state, while simultaneously strengthening APT through heightened economic interdependence and anti‑Western sentiment, yet APT may encounter similar weaknesses, making a robust regional organization unlikely without external forces promoting East Asian integration. Keywords: APEC, ASEAN Plus Three, East Asia, regional integration, crisis.

Abstract

Abstract The principal regional organizations in East Asia and Asia-Pacific, ASEAN and APEC, are widely seen to be crisis-stricken, 'becalmed' or 'adrift'. At the same time, East Asia is witnessing the emergence of a new, as yet embryonic body, ASEAN Plus Three (APT), and ambitious projects implying closer integration between Northeast and Southeast Asia are being mooted. Departing from an analysis of the determinants of the success and failure of regional integration, this article discusses the roots of the perceived decline of ASEAN and APEC and the origins of the rapid rise of APT. The Asian financial crisis in particular, it is argued, has been instrumental both in undermining ASEAN and APEC and in fostering the rise of APT. The crisis has brutally exposed the structural weaknesses of ASEAN and APEC, both of which are handicapped by the political and economic diversity of their member states and the absence of a benevolent dominant state or coalition of states. It has simultaneously fuelled the development of APT because it has greatly strengthened perceptions of mutual economic interdependence and vulnerability in East Asia and resentment against the West and the US. As APT is likely to exhibit similar structural weaknesses to ASEAN and APEC, the odds, however, are against it developing into a strong regional organization, notwithstanding the possibility that, in the near future, external forces and trends (stagnation of world trade liberalization, closer European and American integration) will, if anything, encourage plans for closer East Asian integration. Keywords: Apec Asean Plus Three East Asia Regional Integration Crisis