Climate Change and Its Implications for New Mexico's Water Resources and Economic Opportunities

Abstract

Social, economic, and environmental systems in water scarce New Mexico and throughout the arid southwest are vulnerable to disruptions in water supplies that are likely to accompany future climate changes. With a particular focus on New Mexico and its potential economic consequences, this paper uses a hydro-economic model of the Rio Grande watershed to integrate plausible changes in climate, hydrologic responses, and water demands within a framework that optimizes water use allocations for the greatest economic benefit. The study uses three climate change scenarios across two future time periods selected to represent the range of effects indicted by the outputs across 18 GCMs using the SRES A1B emissions scenario. These six climate change scenarios were then used to model runoff changes using the WATBAL hydrologic model (Yates, 1996), which integrates climate and hydrologic variables, and to change water demand parameters in the hydro-economic model. Primary findings confirm that ecosystems are at greatest risk in New Mexico followed by agricultural water users, as water is increasingly transferred to maintain urban and industrial users with greater economic