Use of weather types to disaggregate general circulation model predictions

Abstract

General circulation models (GCMs) simulate climatic conditions with a grid cell resolution on the order of 100,000 km 2 . This resolution is inadequate to assess the effects of climatic change on water resources at a regional scale. A method has been developed that uses weather‐type analysis as a tool to spatially disaggregate GCM predictions to make them useful for water resource studies. The method has been applied to the Delaware River basin to predict the effects of doubling atmospheric carbon dioxide on precipitation patterns in the region. An application of the technique to the Delaware River basin indicates that future climatic conditions will show minimal changes in weather‐type frequency, implying that air circulation patterns will remain unchanged. Results of this study indicate that changes in regional precipitation patterns under a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide will be a result of within‐type changes in weather characteristics.