Poverty and Violent Conflict: A Micro-Level Perspective on the Causes and Duration of Warfare

TLDR

The article examines how endogenous links between violent conflict and household economic well‑being in combat zones provide micro‑level foundations for debates on conflict causes and duration. It shows that households and armed groups form symbiotic ties—households seek protection from armed groups while armed groups recruit local support—where participation depends on household vulnerability to poverty and violence, influencing conflict initiation and persistence. The study finds that poorer households and those facing higher violence risk are more likely to support armed groups, with the interaction between poverty and violence shaping participation patterns throughout the conflict.

Abstract

This article discusses how endogenous mechanisms linking processes of violent conflict and the economic well-being of individuals and households in combat areas provide valuable micro foundations to the ongoing debate on the causes and duration of armed conflict. Notably, the endogenous relationship between conflict processes and household economic status leads to the emergence of symbiotic associations between armed groups and households living in areas they control that affect substantially the probability of a conflict starting and its effectiveness thereafter. Households in conflict areas draw on local armed groups to protect their economic status when anticipating violence and during the conflict, while armed groups make use of different levels of (either reluctant or voluntary) participation, support and cooperation from local populations to advance their strategic objectives at the onset and throughout the conflict. The level of household participation at the start and during the conflict is a function of two interdependent variables, namely household vulnerability to poverty and household vulnerability to violence. The poorer the household is at the start of the conflict, the higher is the probability of the household participating and supporting an armed group. The higher the risk of violence, the higher is the probability of the household participating and supporting armed groups. The interaction between these two variables varies with the conflict itself and is defined by the direct and indirect effects of conflict-induced violence on the economic behaviour and decisions of households in combat areas.