International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health · 2010 · 75 citations · 32 references
Natural SciencesEarth SciencesEnvironmental SciencesClimate Change AdaptationClimate ScienceClimatologyClimate AnalysisClimate ChangeClimate Impact ModelingGlobal WarmingHeat StressHuman Adaptation To ClimateClimate Change Health EffectsEmissions ScenariosHeat-related Health EffectsRegional Climate ModelsRegional Climate ProjectionsRegional Climate ScenariosRegional Climate VariabilityTerm Adaptation
The study developed two approaches to estimate future heat‑related mortality in Vienna, with and without long‑term adaptation, based on the 1970–2007 heat stress–mortality relationship. Using two regional climate models (IPCC A1B and B1) and the PET index to quantify heat stress, the authors projected Vienna’s future heat‑related mortality and applied the two approaches. Projections show no change until 2040, but thereafter heat‑related mortality could rise up to 129 % by 2100 without adaptation, driven mainly by extreme heat (PET ≥ 41 °C); adaptation would lessen but not eliminate the increase, underscoring the need for additional measures.
The potential development of heat-related mortality in the 21th century for Vienna (Austria) was assessed by the use of two regional climate models based on the IPCC emissions scenarios A1B and B1. Heat stress was described with the human-biometeorological index PET (Physiologically Equivalent Temperature). Based on the relation between heat stress and mortality in 1970–2007, we developed two approaches to estimate the increases with and without long-term adaptation. Until 2011–2040 no significant changes will take place compared to 1970–2000, but in the following decades heat-related mortality could increase up to 129% until the end of the century, if no adaptation takes place. The strongest increase occurred due to extreme heat stress (PET ≥ 41 °C). With long-term adaptation the increase is less pronounced, but still notable. This encourages the requirement for additional adaptation measurements.
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The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves
Christoph Schär, Pier Luigi Vidale, Daniel Lüthi et al. · Nature · 2004 · 2.8K citations