The socioeconomic drivers of China’s primary PM _2.5 emissions

TLDR

Primary PM2.5 emissions have significantly contributed to China’s poor air quality. The study aims to quantify how socioeconomic factors drive changes in China’s primary PM2.5 emissions from 1997 to 2010. It does so by applying a regional emission inventory to an environmentally extended input–output framework and performing structural decomposition analysis. China’s efficiency gains fully offset emissions growth from economic expansion, yet exports remain the sole final demand driver of PM2.5 increases, contributing 638 k tonnes—half the EU27 total—while capital formation, though the largest contributor, is steadily declining, and embodied emissions in exports are largely driven by OECD consumption.

Abstract

Primary PM2.5 emissions contributed significantly to poor air quality in China. We present an interdisciplinary study to measure the magnitudes of socioeconomic factors in driving primary PM2.5 emission changes in China between 1997–2010, by using a regional emission inventory as input into an environmentally extended input–output framework and applying structural decomposition analysis. Our results show that China's significant efficiency gains fully offset emissions growth triggered by economic growth and other drivers. Capital formation is the largest final demand category in contributing annual PM2.5 emissions, but the associated emission level is steadily declining. Exports is the only final demand category that drives emission growth between 1997–2010. The production of exports led to emissions of 638 thousand tonnes of PM2.5, half of the EU27 annual total, and six times that of Germany. Embodied emissions in Chinese exports are largely driven by consumption in OECD countries.