Century-long average time intervals between earthquake ruptures of the San Andreas fault in the Carrizo Plain, California

Abstract

Research Article| September 01, 2010 Century-long average time intervals between earthquake ruptures of the San Andreas fault in the Carrizo Plain, California Sinan O. Akçiz; Sinan O. Akçiz 1Program in Public Health and California Institute for Hazards Research, University of California–Irvine, Irvine, California 92697, USA Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Lisa Grant Ludwig; Lisa Grant Ludwig 1Program in Public Health and California Institute for Hazards Research, University of California–Irvine, Irvine, California 92697, USA Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar J Ramon Arrowsmith; J Ramon Arrowsmith 2School of Earth and Space Exploration, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona 85287, USA Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Olaf Zielke Olaf Zielke 2School of Earth and Space Exploration, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona 85287, USA Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Author and Article Information Sinan O. Akçiz 1Program in Public Health and California Institute for Hazards Research, University of California–Irvine, Irvine, California 92697, USA Lisa Grant Ludwig 1Program in Public Health and California Institute for Hazards Research, University of California–Irvine, Irvine, California 92697, USA J Ramon Arrowsmith 2School of Earth and Space Exploration, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona 85287, USA Olaf Zielke 2School of Earth and Space Exploration, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona 85287, USA Publisher: Geological Society of America Received: 26 Dec 2009 Revision Received: 17 Mar 2010 Accepted: 30 Mar 2010 First Online: 09 Mar 2017 Online ISSN: 1943-2682 Print ISSN: 0091-7613 © 2010 Geological Society of America Geology (2010) 38 (9): 787–790. https://doi.org/10.1130/G30995.1 Article history Received: 26 Dec 2009 Revision Received: 17 Mar 2010 Accepted: 30 Mar 2010 First Online: 09 Mar 2017 Cite View This Citation Add to Citation Manager Share Icon Share Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Email Permissions Search Site Citation Sinan O. Akçiz, Lisa Grant Ludwig, J Ramon Arrowsmith, Olaf Zielke; Century-long average time intervals between earthquake ruptures of the San Andreas fault in the Carrizo Plain, California. Geology 2010;; 38 (9): 787–790. doi: https://doi.org/10.1130/G30995.1 Download citation file: Ris (Zotero) Refmanager EasyBib Bookends Mendeley Papers EndNote RefWorks BibTex toolbar search Search Dropdown Menu toolbar search search input Search input auto suggest filter your search All ContentBy SocietyGeology Search Advanced Search Abstract Paleoseismological data constrain the age, location, and associated magnitude of past surface-rupturing earthquakes; these are critical parameters for developing and testing fault behavior models and characterizing seismic hazard. We present new earthquake evidence and radiocarbon analyses that refine the chronology of the six most recent earthquakes that ruptured the south-central San Andreas fault in the Carrizo Plain (California, United States) at the Bidart Fan site. Modeled 95 percentile ranges of the earthquakes prior to the A.D. 1857 earthquake are A.D. 1631–1823, 1580–1640, 1510–1612, 1450–1475, and 1360–1452. The average time interval between the last six earthquakes that ruptured the San Andreas fault in the Carrizo Plain is 88 ± 41 yr. This is less than the time since the most recent A.D. 1857 earthquake, less than all reported average intervals of prehistoric earthquakes along the entire San Andreas fault, and significantly shorter than the 235 yr average used in recent seismic hazard evaluations. The new chronological data combined with recent slip studies imply that the magnitudes of the earthquakes that ruptured the southern San Andreas fault in the Carrizo Plain since ca. A.D. 1360 were variable, and suggest that the widely held view of rare but great surface rupturing earthquakes along this portion of the southern San Andreas fault should be reevaluated. You do not have access to this content, please speak to your institutional administrator if you feel you should have access.