New developments in wind energy forecasting

Abstract

An overview of new and current developments in wind power forecasting is given where the focus lies upon practical implementations and experiences concerning the operational systems in Europe. In general, modern short-term wind power prediction systems use either statistical or physical approaches to determine the anticipated wind power based on numerical weather forecasts. As an example the physical system Previento is described in detail. The typical accuracy of the forecasts for single wind farms as well as the aggregated production is shown. One focus of this paper is the intelligent use of multiple input from numerical weather models to improve the accuracy of the power forecast. The two main approaches that are applied operationally are ensemble predictions from one weather model and the combination of different numerical weather models. A weather-dependent combination tool that exploits the capabilities of numerical models of different weather services is described in detail. In the future, wind power predictions will be embedded deeper in the processes of grid operators and traders. An example shown here are highly localized predictions for specific grid points which can directly be used as input for power flow calculations, grid management or day-ahead congestion forecasts (DACF). In addition, the market integration of wind energy is pushed in a number of countries such that trading platforms which convert fluctuating wind power production into electricity products become more important.