Mapping present and future potential distribution patterns for a meso‐grazer guild in the Baltic Sea

Abstract

For the Baltic Sea, climate-induced changes resulted in a gain of suitable habitats for <i>F. vesiculosus</i>,<i>I. chelipes</i> and <i>I. balthica</i>, whereas lower habitat suitability was predicted for <i>I. granulosa</i>,<i>F. radicans</i> and <i>G. aculeatus</i>. The predicted north-eastern shift of <i>I. balthica</i> and <i>I. chelipes</i> into the distribution area of <i>F. radicans</i> in the Baltic Sea may result in increased grazing pressure. Such additional threats to isolated Baltic populations can lead to a higher extinction risk for the species, especially as climate changes are likely to be very rapid.