REGIONAL PATTERNS OF GLOBAL ECONOMIC CRISIS SHOCKS PROPAGATION INTO ROMANIAN ECONOMY

Abstract

This paper is a result of a reaction to delay in statistical data source regarding territorial economic reality. For example, in Romanian statistics, the national account indicators (GDP, added value, industrial output, etc.) in regional profile are available only for 2008. On the other hand, economic reality is talking about an unpredictable end of the economic crisis, both in global economy and in the Romanian economy. When statistical data is available we expect that the global economic crisis will be over and we try to find what type of back-up analysis will be adequate for the present regional economic state. In these circumstances, based on the available regional data, we try to estimate the predictable regional patterns of the propagations of the global economic crisis shocks into the Romanian economy, step by step, from 2008 to 2011. Thus, we begin with a quite integrate profile of the regional development in 2008 and, afterwards, based on a series of statistical data for the 2009-2011 period, we try to project predictable trends. The main equations of our research consist in: is there a stochastic pattern in global economic crisis propagation at regional level in the Romanian economy, or are there some consistent factors advocating a scientific explanation of regional disparities during economic crisis period. Taking in account this research objective, we implement an econometrical cross-section analysis of the main economic regional indicators between 1998-2008 and try to compare the estimated forecasts with the available regional statistics for the 2008-2011 period.