Bayesian Estimation of Discrete Multivariate Latent Structure Models With Structural Zeros

Abstract

In multivariate categorical data, models based on conditional independence assump-tions, such as latent class models, offer efficient estimation of complex dependencies. However, Bayesian versions of latent structure models for categorical data typically do not appropriately handle impossible combinations of variables, also known as structural zeros. Allowing non-zero probability for impossible combinations results in inaccurate estimates of joint and conditional probabilities, even for feasible combinations. We present an approach for estimating posterior distributions in Bayesian latent structure models with potentially many structural zeros. The basic idea is to treat the observed data as a truncated sample from an augmented dataset, thereby allowing us to exploit the conditional independence assumptions for computational expediency. As part of the approach, we develop an algorithm for collapsing a large set of structural zero combinations into a much smaller set of disjoint marginal conditions, which greatly speeds computation. We apply the approach to sample from a semi-parametric ver-sion of the latent class model with structural zeros in the context of a key issue faced by national statistical agencies seeking to disseminate confidential data to the public: estimating the number of records in a sample that are unique in the population on a