Journal of Biological Systems · 2011 · 101 citations · 16 references
Veterinary MedicineInfectious Disease ControlInfectious DiseasesCommunicable Disease ControlDynamical SystemsInfectious Disease EpidemiologyDisease DynamicsDisease SpreadInfectious Disease DynamicsNonlinear DynamicsOutbreak ControlTransmission DynamicsDirect Contact TransmissionDisease-related Behavioral ChangesEpidemic ModelsEpidemic Models With DelayInfectious Disease ModelsMathematical Modeling Of EpidemicsNonlinear Stability TheoryPeriodic Solutions Of Differential Equations
A nonlinear mathematical model with delay to capture the dynamics of effect of awareness programs on the prevalence of any epidemic is proposed and analyzed. It is assumed that pathogens are transmitted via direct contact between susceptibles and infectives. It is assumed further that cumulative density of awareness programs increases at a rate proportional to the number of infectives. It is considered that awareness programs are capable of inducing behavioral changes in susceptibles, which result in the isolation of aware population. The model is analyzed using stability theory of differential equations and numerical simulations. The model analysis shows that, though awareness programs cannot eradicate infection, they help in controlling the prevalence of disease. It is also found that time delay in execution of awareness programs destabilizes the system and periodic solutions may arise through Hopf-bifurcation.
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