Nonstationary time series analysis by temporal clustering

Abstract

The object of this paper is to present a model and a set of algorithms for estimating the parameters of a nonstationary time series generated by a continuous change in regime. We apply fuzzy clustering methods to the task of estimating the continuous drift in the time series distribution and interpret the resulting temporal membership matrix as weights in a time varying, mixture probability distribution function (PDF). We analyze the stopping conditions of the algorithm to infer a novel cluster validity criterion for fuzzy clustering algorithms of temporal patterns. The algorithm performance is demonstrated with three different types of signals.