Stadium attendance in German professional football – the (un)importance of uncertainty of outcome reconsidered

Abstract

Although deeply ingrained in the economics of professional team sports literature, previous research could not confirm the importance of outcome uncertainty in European professional football. Moreover, a negative effect was detected and explained rather controversially: It is argued that the majority of spectators prefer to see the home team play either a much inferior team or a rather successful team. With data of n = 306 matches in the German Bundesliga, a generalized Tobit estimator with individual cut-off points and error terms clustered by home teams is employed to follow up with the discussion on the (un)importance of outcome uncertainty. The results highlight a significant positive effect on attendance when either the home and/or the away team still has a theoretical chance to win the championship while the suggested importance of teams still having the possibility to qualify for the UEFA Champions League is not supported (medium-term uncertainty). Furthermore, in line with previous research we could detect a negative effect of short-term uncertainty. However, while there is no evidence that spectators prefer the home team to play an inferior team, the results suggest that it is rather a strong brand of the away team that rises attendance figures in the German Bundesliga.