Climate change threatens European conservation areas

TLDR

Europe’s conservation network is the largest in the world, yet its sites were chosen without considering climate change impacts. The study seeks to determine how well these areas will protect biodiversity under climate change and to highlight the need for new policies. The authors evaluated the effectiveness of protected areas and the Natura 2000 network in safeguarding a broad set of European plant and terrestrial vertebrate species under projected climate change. By 2080, 58 % of species would lose suitable climate within protected areas and 63 % within Natura 2000, with protected areas retaining suitability better than unprotected sites but Natura 2000 offering no advantage, raising the risk that Europe’s biodiversity conservation is jeopardized.

Abstract

Ecology Letters (2011) 14: 484–492 Europe has the world's most extensive network of conservation areas. Conservation areas are selected without taking into account the effects of climate change. How effectively would such areas conserve biodiversity under climate change? We assess the effectiveness of protected areas and the Natura 2000 network in conserving a large proportion of European plant and terrestrial vertebrate species under climate change. We found that by 2080, 58 ± 2.6% of the species would lose suitable climate in protected areas, whereas losses affected 63 ± 2.1% of the species of European concern occurring in Natura 2000 areas. Protected areas are expected to retain climatic suitability for species better than unprotected areas (P < 0.001), but Natura 2000 areas retain climate suitability for species no better and sometimes less effectively than unprotected areas. The risk is high that ongoing efforts to conserve Europe's biodiversity are jeopardized by climate change. New policies are required to avert this risk.