How Public Opinion Constrains the U.S. Supreme Court

TLDR

Scholars recognize a contemporaneous link between public opinion and Supreme Court decisions, yet debate persists over whether the Court is directly influenced or merely reflects shared social forces. The study aims to develop a strategy that controls for justices' attitudinal shifts driven by the same social forces that shape public opinion. It then proposes a theoretical argument that strategic justices should remain mindful of public opinion even when the public is unlikely to notice the Court’s actions. The results indicate that public opinion does influence Supreme Court decisions, with a substantive effect most pronounced in nonsalient cases.

Abstract

Although scholars increasingly acknowledge a contemporaneous relationship between public opinion and Supreme Court decisions, debate continues as to why this relationship exists. Does public opinion directly influence decisions or do justices simply respond to the same social forces that simultaneously shape the public mood? To answer this question, we first develop a strategy to control for the justices' attitudinal change that stems from the social forces that influence public opinion. We then propose a theoretical argument that predicts strategic justices should be mindful of public opinion even in cases when the public is unlikely to be aware of the Court's activities. The results suggest that the influence of public opinion on Supreme Court decisions is real, substantively important, and most pronounced in nonsalient cases.