Causes of Fertility Decline in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union: Part I. The Influence of Demographic Factors

Abstract

The principal aim of this paper is to put together in a comparative analysis the existing information and data in the hope of stimulating interest in and provoking further research into the causes underlying the observed fertility declines. It is clear that the phenomenon itself is of paramount importance to the economic and social development of the countries concerned. As shown in a recent study of the Economic Commission for Europe the recent declines in annual births will greatly reduce the inflow of young people into the labour force of most countries in the area by the early 1970s and will entail several unfavourable consequences particularly with regard to labour mobility. Furthermore the entry of smaller female birth cohorts into reproductive ages will adversely affect the productive potential of these populations. But a knowledge of the causes of the fertility decline is necessary above all for forecasting future growth of populations and it is indispensable for finding appropriate counter-measures should the planners opt for pronatalist policies. (excerpt)