Regional population collapse followed initial agriculture booms in mid-Holocene Europe

TLDR

Agriculture spread across Europe between 8000 and 4000 BP, altering consumption patterns, boosting populations, and triggering regional population oscillations that are unlikely driven by climate. The study aims to show that agriculture introduced a boom‑and‑bust pattern in regional population densities and to test whether these patterns relate to climate. The authors used summed calibrated radiocarbon date distributions and simulations to assess the significance of demographic booms and busts amid calibration curve and sampling uncertainty. Results for Central and Northwest Europe (8000–4000 cal) reveal no climate relationship, suggesting endogenous causes for the boom‑and‑bust pattern, though this remains speculative. The study references Shennan et al.

Abstract

Following its initial arrival in SE Europe 8,500 years ago agriculture spread throughout the continent, changing food production and consumption patterns and increasing population densities. Here we show that, in contrast to the steady population growth usually assumed, the introduction of agriculture into Europe was followed by a boom-and-bust pattern in the density of regional populations. We demonstrate that summed calibrated radiocarbon date distributions and simulation can be used to test the significance of these demographic booms and busts in the context of uncertainty in the radiocarbon date calibration curve and archaeological sampling. We report these results for Central and Northwest Europe between 8,000 and 4,000 cal. BP and investigate the relationship between these patterns and climate. However, we find no evidence to support a relationship. Our results thus suggest that the demographic patterns may have arisen from endogenous causes, although this remains speculative. Between 8000 and 4000 BP, agriculture spread throughout Europe changing consumption patterns and increasing populations. Shennan et al. analyse radiocarbon date distributions and paleoclimate proxies to show that agriculture also triggered regional population oscillations and that climate forcing is an unlikely cause.